1H22 results in line with our expectation Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure announced 1H22 results: Revenue fell 11.8% YoY to Rmb1.62bn and attributable net profit to Rmb295mn, with an EPS of Rmb0.18, down 36.9% YoY, largely in line with our expectation. The firm proposed a dividend of HK$0.1/sh in 1H22, with a payout ratio of 48.8%, both down from 1H21 (dividend at HK$0.2/sh and payout ratio at 59.5%). Trends to watch Traffic flows fell YoY due to COVID-19 resurgence; earnings under pressure. The firm’s 1H22 toll revenue dropped 13.0% YoY to Rmb1.57bn. We note a decline in the traffic flow of the road assets under the firm’s control and those in which it has invested. Specifically, the firm’s toll revenue from Guangzhou North Second Ring Expressway and traffic flows fell 10.3% and 8.2% YoY due to COVID-19 resurgence and diversion of some traffic to the Guangzhou-Foshan-Zhaoqing Expressway. In central China, traffic flows of Han’e Expressway and Daguangnan Expressway dropped 26.6% and 23.9% YoY, and toll revenue fell 23.3% and 16.1% YoY due to COVID-19 resurgence in Hubei. In addition, toll revenue declined by Rmb109mn due to the spin-off and listing of the Hanxiao Expressway through the establishment of a real estate investment trust (REIT). Traffic flows recovering month by month; likely to keep improving in 2H22. By month, traffic flows of most of the firm’s road assets have improved MoM since April, and the YoY decline has been narrowing. Specifically, average daily traffic flows and toll revenue of Guangzhou North Second Ring Expressway grew 17.5% and 10.0% YoY in June. We believe that the firm’s road assets and traffic flows will continue to recover with the implementation of normalized COVID-19 prevention and control measures. Upbeat on long-term steady growth of the firm’s main businesses. 1) Renovation and expansion of Guangzhou North Second Ring Expressway may contribute to earnings growth. This Expressway is the firm’s most important revenue-generating road asset thanks to its high traffic flows. However, the traffic flows are at their peak, and the firm has submitted a feasibility report for its renovation and expansion. We expect the firm’s revenue and earnings to grow significantly after the renovation and expansion are completed. 2) Incubation platform helps the firm find high-quality road assets to acquire. The firm is identifying high-quality assets to acquire from its parent company, and has announced that it is studying the potential acquisition of the Lanwei Expressway. We think this will expand the firm’s road assets if the acquisition is completed. 3) Optimizing asset portfolio through REITs. We believe the firm’s spin- off and listing of the Hanxiao Expressway through REIT in 2021 created a closed loop of "investment, financing, management and exit of capital"; optimized the stock assets; and reduced the debt ratio. We expect the firm to use the proceeds to reinvest in the main business and further optimize its asset portfolio. Financials and valuation Considering the negative impact of COVID-19 resurgence on traffic flows, we lower our 2022 earnings forecast 13.6% to Rmb791mn. We largely maintain our 2023 earnings forecast. The stock is trading at 7.8x and 5.8x 2022e and 2023e P/E. We maintain OUTPERFORM but cut TP 13.6% to HK$5.19, implying 9.4x 2022e P/E and 7.1x 2023e P/E with 21.0% upside. Risks COVID-19 resurgence; disappointing progress in M&A projects.