大行評級|摩根大通:房地產板塊政策轉向的可能性較大 建議關注4月底政治局會議
摩根大通發表研究報吿指,接下來將有多間內房發展商及物管公司公佈全年業績。該行認為,內地發展商受到利潤不斷縮減的拖累,預期平均盈利將按年跌30%。對於國企物管公司,該行料它們的盈利按年平均增長將放緩到13%,而2023年增長為30%。雖然大部分公司業績仍未有好轉跡象,但相信股票交易主要是基於合約銷售和政策動向。摩通提到,短期而言,如果銷售數據惡化,其股票或會表現不佳。然而,銷售或房屋價格走弱的趨勢意味着房地產板塊政策轉向的可能性較大,建議市場關注4月底的政治局會議。該行行業首選華潤置地、中國海外、保利物業等。該行另將中國金茂評級由“減持”上調至“增持”,預期集團將重拾增長。
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