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大行評級|大摩:藥明系估值具上行空間 看好藥明合聯較不受地緣政治影響
格隆匯 03-11 11:09

摩根士丹利發表研究報告指,藥明系公司當前的估值未能充分反映早期需求復甦、價格見底以及新興療法帶來的上行潛力等正面因素,認爲業績向好和積壓訂單增長均是行業正在回升的明確跡象,歷時長達一年的《生物安全法案》事件去年底起宣告塵埃落定,而CRO及CDMO板塊估值已回升至與2024年初水平,經歷持續一年的低迷,認爲隨着全球生物科技行業融資逐漸回暖,研發需求復甦,加上產能利用率提升及ADC、BsAbs等新興療法蓬勃發展,預計藥明系估值可進一步上升。

大摩預期藥明系公司的股價上升潛力得到短中期盈利增長可見性、穩定性和質量的支持,最看好藥明合聯受地緣政治不穩定的影響最小,建議投資者可關注其訂單前景及2025年有望轉型爲合同製造組織(CMO),將2024年收入、純利及經調整淨利潤預測上調10.1%、5.9%及6.9%,目標價由34.8港元上調至41.3港元。大摩大致維持藥明生物2024年收入預測不變,淨利潤預測上調3%,目標價維持31.6港元不變。爲反映擬出售ATU業務的影響,大摩將藥明康德2024至2026年收入預測下調2%至10%,目標價上調至74.3港元。

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