大行評級|招商證券國際:DeepSeek引發中國互聯網科技公司價值重估 首選阿里、騰訊和騰訊音樂
招商證券國際發表報告指,DeepSeek-R1自1月底發佈後,中國龍頭互聯網公司的股價平均上漲14%,未來12個月市盈率從11.6倍上升到13倍。該行認爲,未來的關鍵關注點將集中在財務收益的驗證,例如阿里在業績會上表示目前看到新增調用需求中60-70%都是推理需求,且認爲未來95%的大模型token會在雲端傳輸。後續應進一步關注雲需求爆發帶來的收入和利潤潛在上行機遇;行業應用的深化,例如騰訊依託強大的社交護城河及應用矩陣,有望成爲AI Agent的超級入口;由此帶來的競爭格局的轉變。DeepSeek在一定程度上帶來了效率和體驗的提升,但在另一方面也使得部分行業護城河降低,未來應密切關注相關產品趨勢。綜合考慮增長、競爭格局、估值等,該行對中國互聯網子行業的優先級排序爲廣告>遊戲=增值服務>雲計算>本地生活>電商>直播,首選推薦阿里巴巴、騰訊和騰訊音樂。
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