研報掘金|華泰證券:港交所優化交收費率將加大業績波動 維持“買入”評級
華泰證券發表研報指,港交所早前發佈關於優化證券市場股份交收費結構的公告,認爲新結構將平衡各類交易的交收費成本,一定程度上加大港交所的業績波動,但對港交所長期的交收費率影響較小。華泰證券預計,在新規則落地後,單筆交易額少於4.8萬港元的交收費率將下降,而大於4.8萬的交收費率將上漲。若2019-2024年的交易採用新結構,77%的交易可降低交收成本。該行認爲港交所交收費收入的波動可能加大,這是因爲上下限額取消後,交收費收入與港股成交額相關性將加強。華泰證券預期,在市場交易活躍/低迷時,新結構下的港交所交收費收入將高於/低於現行規則,但從長期視角看港交所的平均交收費率的變動或許較小。另外,華泰證券將港交所2024至2026財年歸母淨利潤預測調整至131億、132億及133億港元,調整幅度分別爲+0%、+0.5及+0.3%,維持該股目標價於404港元及“買入”評級。
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