AI師資雙輪驅動顯成效，粉筆24年預期經調整淨利潤不少於3.5億領跑賽道
2月14日，粉筆(02469.HK)發佈2024年全年業績預告。報告顯示，粉筆預計2024年收入不少於27.7億元，淨利潤不少於2.3億元，與上年同期的1.9億元相比，大幅增長不少於19.3%，經調整淨利潤預期將不少於3.5億元。盈利能力持續領跑行業，長期穩居職教賽道第一陣營。
粉筆前期AI研發投入已進入價值兌現階段，基於算法優勢構建的技術護城河與規模化的商業閉環，正形成支撐業績增長的飛輪效應。2025年是生成式AI規模化商用元年，相較於同業競爭者，粉筆依託十餘年教研資源積累及前瞻性技術預研投入，已完成多款AI產品矩陣的商業化部署，在市場形成顯著的卡位優勢。據公開報道，2024年7月，粉筆上線自主研發的專注於職教行業的垂域大模型，緊接着推出基於此開發的“粉筆AI老師”，智能化輔助學習，內容覆蓋行測、申論等科目。去年12月，粉筆精品面試AI點評產品上線，通過1：1模擬真實面試考場視頻作答，AI老師全程引導，實現運營效率與用戶體驗的協同優化，充分驗證了其在智能商業轉型中的先發優勢與競爭壁壘。
粉筆CEO張小龍此前強調，公司對AI的投入並非短期跟風，而是一以貫之，早在ChatGPT面世前就組建了專業算法團隊，近年來更持續加碼人才與算力投入。他表示，科技纔是效率提升的王炸，呼籲行業聚焦垂直場景的產品創新與商業價值挖掘。
2025年是粉筆成立的第十年。粉筆總裁魏亮表示，過去十年，依託自主研發的推薦算法、深度學習框架及自然語言處理技術，粉筆形成了"教、學、練、測、評"全鏈路AI解決方案，通過個性化學習系統實現知識路徑的動態優化，基於自然語言處理技術的主觀題智能批改系統將效率提升至人工的20倍以上。
技術迭代方面，粉筆近期官宣2024年底已部署全面接入DeepSeek大模型，預計推動其自研垂域大模型性能進一步釋放。中信證券研報指出，DeepSeek在準確度、推理能力和訓練成本上的優勢有望推動教育+AI大範圍應用推廣，而在相關領域應用場景的理解與數據積累以及產品化能力水平或將成爲新的商業化競爭優勢。
2025年度國考報名人數再創新高，共有341.6萬人通過資格審查，角逐3.97萬個計劃招錄名額。競爭再度升溫，公考培訓市場擴容趨勢仍有望持續。據透露，粉筆即將上線首個完全由AI授課的公考課程，適應不同用戶需求，加速構建AI+教育產品組合生態體系，通過差異化的產品矩陣與滲透式定價策略，依託優化後的成本結構和規模效應，持續拓寬市場護城河。
從長期發展維度來看，隨着AI技術矩陣的持續深化，粉筆的行業主導地位或將進一步強化。在 AI 深度賦能下，其未來業績增長曲線有望呈現更強的延展性和突破性。
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