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大行評級|花旗:目前券商股價可能過高 下調中信證券、海通證券評級至“中性”
花旗發表報吿指,內地自9月政策發佈以來,見到監管機構致力於建立一個“慢牛市場”,以幫助提振內需,並推動家庭資產向股票重新分配。雖然市場對政策中樞反應正面,但該行認為目前中國券商股價可能過高。自9月下旬以來,H股和A股傳統券商平均升幅分別約70%和40%。該行指,由於2024年對牛市狀況的盈利敏感度較2015年為低,該行敏感度分析顯示券商無法提供足夠的淨資產收益率升幅,以證明目前的市賬率倍數在重新評級後是合理水平。因此該行雖然調高對券商的盈利預測,以計入日均成交額升幅,但仍將中信證券、海通證券評級由“買入”下調至“中性”。由於風險回報較佳,該行偏好中資H股經紀商,而非A股經紀商。首選華泰證券及中國銀河,因它們對日均成交額的敏感度仍然較高,且估值不高。
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