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信創50ETF、信息安全ETF、信創ETF逆勢上升,國泰君安:當前信創產業正迎來內外部新的有利條件支持

A股主要指數早盤集體下跌,截至午盤,滬指跌0.3%報3299.87點,深成指跌0.85%,創業板指跌1.3%,北證50指數升1.81%。全市場半日成交額10042億元,較上日放量962億元,超3000只個股上升。

ETF方面,信創、信息安全主題ETF逆勢上升,廣發信創50ETF、易方達信息安全ETF、嘉實信息安全ETF、信創ETF易方達、國泰信創ETF升超1%。

目前市場上有7只信創主題ETF、兩隻信息安全主題ETF。其中,廣發信創50ETF、國泰信創ETF、信創ETF易方達、信創ETF富國跟蹤國證信創指數;匯添富信創50ETF、華夏信創ETF、華寶信創ETF基金跟蹤 中證信創指數;易方達信息安全ETF、嘉實信息安全ETF跟升信息安全指數。

信創、信息安全上升,消息面上,中國人民銀行等七部門聯合印發《推動數字金融高質量發展行動方案》。其中提到,強化數字技術支撐能力。合理評估金融機構數字化進程,指導具備條件的金融機構建立跨科技部門和業務部門的任務型團隊,建立前端業務部門需求驅動的數字技術開發模式,提高科技開發敏捷響應能力。落實科技自立自強戰略,開展前沿技術研究,加快重點領域專利佈局,持續提升科技核心系統自主可控能力。建設證券期貨業數字化公共服務平台,為金融機構數字化轉型提供數據和技術支撐。

自2019年以來,信創板塊有三輪實現明顯超額收益的主升行情。國泰君安證券選取28只核心標的構建信創板塊指數,與計算機指數相比,自2019年以來,信創板塊有三輪實現較為明顯超額收益的主升行情。

第一輪行情從2019年8月啟動,行情長達11個月,超額收益為36.80個百分點;第二輪行情從2022年10月啟動,行情長達8個月,超額收益為29.88個百分點;目前處於第三輪行情之中,從2024年9月啟動至2024年11月的階段性小高點,超額收益為23.85%。整體來看,信創板塊超額收益行情往往啟動於三季度中下旬,且可延續至次年二季度末,投資週期較長。

對於信創板塊,國泰君安證券認為當前信創產業正迎來內外部新的有利條件支持,有望實現更大規模、更高質量的發展。2019年第一輪信創超額收益行情與美國特朗普政府對華為的正式制裁以及我國政府部門大規模信創改造有關;2022年第二輪信創超額收益行情與美國拜登政府對中國半導體產業的全面制裁以及我國央國企加速信創採購有關。目前正在進行的第三輪信創行情,外部微軟藍屏故障等信息安全事故的頻發以及特朗普初步贏得美國總統大選引發的潛在科技制裁風險,內部有安全可靠信息產品測評採及政府採購制度的建立和成熟,以及大規模政府化債措施和包括特別國債、中央轉移支付在內的更積極財政政策支持,有望顯著提高政府信創採購意願和能力,撬動整體信創產業實現更大規模、更高質量的發展,推動信創行情實現超預期發展。

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