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大行評級|交銀國際:上調信義光能評級至“買入” 光伏玻璃進入去庫存週期 價格反彈可期

交銀國際發表報吿,稱雖然光伏玻璃價格持續下跌,但行業經過大幅減產後,光伏玻璃已實現供求平衡,預計後續隨着持續減產及組件增產,玻璃有望進入去庫存週期,價格反彈可期。因此,調升信義光能評級至“買入”,目標價由4.09港元微降至4.04港元。不過,由於光伏玻璃價格跌幅超出預期,以及信義光能產量低於預期,因此將公司2024至2026年的盈利預測分別調低25%、35%及29%。

報吿提到,信義光能同時進行擴產以及冷修老舊產能,將能降低成本。另外,在虧損壓力下,行業近期對供給側改革的呼聲漸高,預計政府有望出台提高能耗標準等政策,加快光伏玻璃供給出清及售價回升,並利好信義光能等能耗較低的龍頭企業。在信義光能已建成的產能中,能耗較高的900噸以下窯爐僅佔7%,低於福萊特的10%及行業平均的20%以上,因此可能被淘汰的產能佔比低。交銀國際又認為,信義光能光伏發電業務盈利較為穩定,並可持續提供現金流,負債率亦明顯低於光伏玻璃同業。因此,在同業陷入虧損而無力擴產時,公司仍可整體盈利並逆勢擴產,處於競爭中的有利地位。

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