On the evening of November 13th, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics unveiled the October CPI index report. The most recent data reveals a 2.6% year-on-year increase in the US October CPI, aligning with market expectations and surpassing the previous value of 2.4%, thereby ending the previous six-month downward trend. Concurrently, the core CPI exhibited a 3.3% year-on-year rise, in line with market expectations, ensuring stability.

Analysts on Wall Street highlighted that the "super core" service index, excluding housing costs, saw its smallest increase in October over a three-month period. This observation somewhat alleviated market concerns about the Federal Reserve's potential slowdown in the pace of rate cuts. Following the data release, traders increased their bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, reducing the projected number of rate cuts for 2025. The probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December rose from 58.7% earlier on Wednesday to 82.5%. It is notable that Citigroup maintains a forecast of a 50-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December. Wells Fargo Bank suggested that the Federal Reserve may begin to moderate its rate cuts from 2025, anticipating a rate cut at every other meeting.

After the data release, the US stock market experienced slight fluctuations, with the three major indices initially trending lower before rebounding. However, towards the end of the trading session, gains narrowed significantly, resulting in a lower close for the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 index closed up by 1.39 points, representing a 0.02% increase, at 5985.38 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 47.21 points, reflecting a 0.11% increase, closing at 43958.19 points. Conversely, the Nasdaq, focusing on technology, fell by 50.66 points, equating to a 0.26% decrease, ending at 19230.74 points. Notably, the China concept stocks index dropped by over 1%; Tencent ADR declined by 1.8%; FUTU Holdings, after an initial surge of 14%, reversed course to a decline exceeding 9%; KE Holdings rose by over 3% before turning down by 2%; while Xpeng Motors closed up by 12.08%. The semiconductor stocks index fell by 2%, and NVIDIA declined by 1.36%.

Despite the widespread market anticipation of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in December, statements from Federal Reserve officials also suggest uncertainties regarding the pace of such reductions. Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, indicated that if there is an unexpected inflation increase before December, it could lead the Federal Reserve to pause rate cuts. This statement has increased uncertainty in the market about the Federal Reserve's policy direction.

Furthermore, the uncertainties surrounding President Trump's policies also influence the Federal Reserve's rate cut trajectory. President Trump's support for increased tariffs and reduced immigration policies could potentially trigger inflation, impacting economic growth and fueling global trade tensions. These policies may drive up costs, disrupt supply chains, and tighten labor markets, factors that could potentially reignite inflation and influence the pace of rate cuts.