供需兩側發力,税惠“大禮包”來了!港、A地產股高開低走
房地產又迎大利好。
不過,受大市下行影響,港、A房地產板塊飄綠。
截至發稿,A股世榮兆業2連板,蘇州高新、亞通股份升超3%,我愛我家升超1%。
港股金輝控股升超13%,富力地產升超1%,此前一度升超10%。

供需兩端發力
昨日,《關於促進房地產市場平穩健康發展有關税收政策的公吿》發佈,對房企、居民供需兩端均進行降税。
居民端,一般來説,居民購買新房時需繳納的税費主要為契税(買方),二手房交易需繳納契税(買方)、增值税(賣方)、個人所得税(賣方)、房地產税(部分城市,如上海)。
此次税收調整中,將1%的優惠税率的適用範圍從90平米擴大到140平米,北上廣深一線的二套房税率也統一到了2%;在北上廣深交易滿2年的住宅,無論大小都不再徵收增值税。
影響上,購房交易成本下降,有望引導改善需求合理釋放,促進房地產市場交易。
中信證券指出,當前中國房地產市場的交易税負已經來到了歷史上最低的階段。
房企端,將土地增值税預徵率下限在全國範圍調低0.5個百分點,而土地增值税是房地產企業納税金額最高的税種。
影響上,有望在一定程度上緩解房企現金流壓力。
另據中信證券測算,在全面執行新規之後,政策有望對房企帶來不同程度業績增厚,平均可達8%-15%,毛利率較低的公司業績上行彈性更大。

短期將震盪
今年以來,政策層面持續出手支持房地產,在此影響下,各地住宅成交有所回升。
不過,房地產行業何時能觸底,房價真正見底並企穩,仍待觀察。
展望未來,高盛預計,2025年中國房地產市場將逐漸觸底。假設未來三年內將有8萬億元的財政刺激政策以實現供需平衡,房價將在2025年底穩定下來。
投資上,高盛認為,盡管最低點股價和估值可能已經過去,但開發商股票仍更多處於交易性區間波動中。每次政策刺激後基本面可能會出現大約八週左右的脈衝式復甦,但隨後又會回落,再次觸發下一步政策放鬆。因此,在這種交易區間內,買入時機和絕對股價水平對於獲取回報至關重要。
中金認為,自政治局會議提出“止跌回穩”目標後,房地產板塊呈現高位盤整行情,伴隨着預期內政策措施不斷落地,市場逐步轉向觀察行業基本面驗證,短期內行情可能面臨一定震盪,逢低加倉仍是合適策略。
東吳證券則認為,目前板塊仍處於政策預期拐點後的上升初期階段,建議把握政策大方向順勢而為。考慮到降低購房交易成本後,房地產銷售量有望修復,二手房的成交量有望率先提升,推薦優質房地產經紀業務公司貝殼,建議關注我愛我家。
不過,摩根士丹利認為,上述税收減免措施雖然或為買賣雙方減低成本,但仍未能扭轉居民對房價審慎的看法。連同居民對加大槓桿的意欲減輕,減税雖稍微幫助內房銷售,但難以支持一個持續的復甦。
大摩提出,地產商從政策中獲益有限,中海外發展和越秀地產可能會相對受益更多,不過,一線城市的二手房代理機構可能是住房升級需求增強的主要受益者。
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