國泰君安:基礎化工板塊或有望於2025年逐步走出週期底部,開啟温和復甦
國泰君安研報指出,化工正處於磨底階段。供給端,雖然資本開支同比下降明顯,但資本開支及在建工程仍處於歷史高位,預計供需關係改善還需要一些時間;需求端,由於需求回暖是個漸進的過,向上反轉的動力仍需要時間醖釀。展望2024年第四季度及未來兩年,短期來看,雖然2024年的“金九銀十”旺季不旺,但供給剛性的行業仍表現了較強的盈利韌性,如MDI、鈦精礦、磷礦石、三氯蔗糖等品種。中長期來看,基礎化工板塊或有望於2025年逐步走出週期底部,開啟温和復甦,推薦具備成本優勢的龍頭白馬以及具備成長趨勢的優質企業。
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