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大行評級|大摩:目前鋰價上行空間有限 下調贛鋒鋰業、天齊鋰業等新材料股的目標價
摩根士丹利發表新材料報吿指,渠道顯示每噸鋰價在7萬至8萬元在目前供需下屬合理價格,寧德時代宜春梘下窩礦場成本為每噸8萬至9萬元,若鋰價恢復至高於該水平礦場或會復產。另一方面,9月及10月鋰訂單穩固,受惠高峯季及勝預期的能源儲備系統需求。在中國、澳洲及非洲國家減產下,預期全年供應過剩少於10萬噸,少於原預期的逾20萬噸。但展望鋰價仍有下行壓力,因電動車商仍希望進一步減價。該行又指,鈾期貨價格今年穩定上升,Centrus Energy獲美國准許進口俄羅斯濃縮鈾,美國對俄羅斯產品禁令影響暫時平息。但俄羅斯警吿或實施出口管制,一旦落實會為自然鈾帶來增量需求,鈾牛市週期將繼續。太陽能方面,大摩指太陽能玻璃生產商自7月初開始虧損,受行業供需不配合影響。庫存亦升至約36日的歷史高位,令太陽能玻璃價格跌至低於大部分生產商成本價。該行料9月有更多生產線停止運作,減少供應壓力及在傳統消費高峯季前穩定產品價格。該行對在港上市的鋰業、鈾業及太陽能玻璃等新材料股下調目標價,其中,金力永磁目標價從7.2港元下調至5.9港元,評級“與大市同步”;贛鋒鋰業目標價從26港元下調至19港元,天齊鋰業目標價從42港元下調至24.3港元,信義光能目標價從5.8港元下調至4.5港元,福萊特玻璃目標價從18.7港元下調至13.4港元,評級均為“增持”。
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