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大行評級|建銀國際:下調油價預測 “三桶油”中仍首選中海油
格隆匯 09-26 13:28
建銀國際發表研究報吿,將2024年布蘭特原油價格預測下調7%至每桶81美元,符合市場共識;2025年原油價格預測下調8%至每桶83美元,較市場共識高4%。建銀國際表示,全球央行可能在未來數季減息,或會為石油需求復甦提供有利環境。同時,OPEC+微調石油產量的靈活性及意願,亦有助於降低供應過剩風險。儘管隨着電動車普及率提高,而向清潔能源的結構性轉變抑制對汽油的需求,但對煤油和柴油等其他成品油,以及石化產品的需求持續則增長。建銀國際亦指,在原油價格下跌的情況下,中海油4月至今的股價維持穩定,表現優於中石油、中石化等同業。該行表示,基於中海油穩健的盈利增長前景,具吸引力的估值、穩健的資產負債表及具吸引力的收益率,中海油仍是建銀國際在行業中的首選。建銀國際將中海油H股目標價由22港元下調至21.2港元,維持“跑贏大市”評級;將中石油H股目標價由8.3港元下調至7.45港元,維持“跑贏大市”評級;將中石化H股目標價由5港元下調至4.65港元,維持“中性”評級。
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