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大行評級|摩根大通:香港地產股或不一定再跑贏大市 首選領展、太古地產和長和

摩根大通近日發表報吿,香港地產股自7月初以來表現優於恒指8%,主要是由於降息預期,然而在實際降息之後,該行認為香港地產股或不一定再跑贏大市,因為行業基本面(住宅、辦公和零售)可能仍然不温不火。該行指大多數地產公司均已公佈業績,相信降息預期已被市場大部分被消化,因此該行對地產股取態更有選擇,優先選擇具有以下特點的公司:第一是股息確定性較高;第二是承諾股份回購計劃;第三是具涉及相對彈性的次產業(必需消費品)。

該行表示,首選是領展(料11月公佈中期業績派息可優預期)、太古地產(承諾回購和中單位數每股股息成長)和長和(中國業務風險敞口較小及盈利增長復甦),均予“增持”評級,各予目標價42港元、16.2港元及50港元。摩通對九龍倉置業(料受香港奢侈品零售疲軟影響)保持謹慎態度。該行表示,假設利率每下調100個基點,按固定負債比率計算,料對香港地產股明年度核心盈利則平均錄正增長為3.7%影響。

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