研報掘金|中金:內房中短期政策潛在調整或帶來一定交易性機會 看好潤地及中海外
中金髮表報吿指,8月二手房成交量按月略降,成交縮量疊加供給上行共同導致成交價跌幅較7月有所走闊。成交量方面,8月中介口徑80城二手房成交量指數按月下降3%、按年增幅收窄至39%;同期高頻口徑15城二手房成交量按月下降13%,按年增幅收窄至13%。成交價方面,8月中金同質性二手住宅成交價格指數按月跌幅走闊至1.6%,年初至今成交價累計下跌9.1%,較歷史高峯點(2021年6月)累計下跌27%。同時,8月成交議價空間按月增長36個基點至7.71%,增幅較7月走闊。該行指,當前樓市成交量走低、二手房掛牌量上行,使得房價進一步承壓,8月二手房價按月跌幅進一步有所走闊。在這一背景下,疊加現階段開發商經營與業績難有拐點,板塊較難出現長期趨勢性投資機遇,中短期維度政策潛在調整仍可能帶來一定交易性機會,例如近期投資人政策預期提升帶來的板塊底部波動。開發板塊,H股看好華潤置地、中國海外發展。物管板塊方面,考慮到當前估值水平較充分地反映了物企自身商業模式與潛在風險,後續利潤成長能力與股息收益率的複合回報將成為市場選股主要依據,建議逢低左側佈局具中長期配置價值企業,看好華潤萬象生活、綠城服務和保利物業。
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