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美國8月ISM製造業PMI不及預期!美股大跌,英偉達重挫7%,VIX一度狂飆19%

今日,最新公佈的ISM數據顯示,美國8月製造業活動連續第五個月萎縮,反映出訂單和產量下降速度加快。

數據發佈後,美股三大指數集體下跌,以英偉達為首的半導體領跌大盤。

截至發稿,道指、標普500指數跌超1%,納指跌超2%。

英偉達跌超7%,英特爾跌超6%,台積電、美光科技跌超5%,谷歌、蘋果跌超2%。

恐慌指數VIX波動率日內升幅一度達19.42%,報18.57。

連續5個月下滑

具體來看,美國8月ISM製造業PMI為47.2,預期為47.5,前值為46.8。

該指標連續第五個月下滑,進一步陷入收縮區間,降至去年11月以來的最低水平。

一般來説,PMI低於50表示萎縮,製造業佔經濟的10.3%。

ISM此前曾表示,只要該指標高於42.5,通常表明整體經濟在擴張。

與此同時,8月ISM新訂單指數44.6,降至2023年5月以來最低,前值47.4。

產出進一步下滑,生產分類指數從7月的45.9下滑至44.8。

庫存指數為50.3,較上月大升5.8個點,前值44.5。

訂單下降和積壓訂單持續減少仍然是生產的阻力,表明製造業陷入困境。

雖然ISM工廠就業指數有所上升,但仍顯示連續第三個月萎縮,從7月的43.4上升至46.0。

與此同時,成本問題依然令人頭疼。8月ISM製造業物價支付指數為54,預期52,前值52.9。

緊盯週五的就業數據

本週,市場的交易重點主要還是集中在美國的經濟數據上。

週五,對降息走向至關重要的8月非農就業數據將公佈。

對此,BMO Capital Markets的Ian Lyngen 、Vail Hartman評論稱:

“對最近失業率上升的擔憂將使市場緊張不安,直到週五的數據出爐。”“ISM製造PMI 8月表現不佳。總體而言,數據中沒有什麼令人鼓舞的東西,但對美國製造業來説,這並不是什麼新鮮事。”

摩根士丹利的分析師Michael Wilson曾成功預見到上個月的美股調整,他認為股市短期波動跟週五的就業數據息息相關。

他表示,如果週五公佈的數據進一步證明經濟具有韌性,那麼美股可能會得到提振。強於預期的就業數據可能會讓投資者“更有信心,相信增長風險已經消退”。

不過,摩根大通的分析師卻並沒有那麼樂觀。摩根大通認為,即使美聯儲啟動備受期待的降息週期,股市升勢也可能停滯在歷史高位附近。 

由Mislav Matejka領導的團隊是今年最看跌股市的人士之一,他表示,任何政策放鬆都將是對經濟增長放緩的迴應,因此是一種“被動”的降息。

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