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抱團瓦解信號?連創新高的銀行股集體崩了

今日,銀行股在近期連創新高的背景下回調。

A股,銀行板塊震盪下挫。截至發稿,農業銀行、工商銀行跌超4%,建設銀行、中國銀行、郵儲銀行、交通銀行均跌超3%。

需要注意的是,昨日,就有多家國有大行再創歷史新高,隨後收跌。

其中,工商銀行創下歷史新高6.57元/股,收跌0.61%;農業銀行創下歷史新高5.01元/股,收跌0.8%;建設銀行創下歷史新高8.41元/股,收跌1.2%;中國銀行創下歷史新高5.2元/股,收跌0.97%;交通銀行創下歷史新高8.06元/股,收跌1.12%;郵儲銀行前一日創歷史新高5.22元/股,收跌1.35%。

廈門銀行跌超7%,上海銀行、北京銀行、滬農商行等跌幅靠前。

港股內銀股下挫,交通銀行跌近6%,中信銀行跌超5%,農業銀行跌超4%,建設銀行、工商銀行、郵儲銀行、重慶銀行、中國銀行、光大銀行跌超3%,招商銀行跌超2%。

與此同時,A股有所反彈,深證成指升0.84%,創業板指升0.62%,但滬指仍下跌0.62%,盤中再創新低2815.38。

市場超3800只個股上升,1200多隻個股下跌,43只個股升停,僅2只個股跌停。

抱團式投機?

有部分投資者認為,近期銀行股連創新高,吸引了大量流動性,從而導致市場走勢偏弱。

昨日,每日經濟新聞發文《機構投資者,不應在四大行上抱團式投機》,其中指責了機構在四大行、中石化等大盤績優股上以抱團之名,行投機之實。

管理層一直在提,要壯大耐心資本。耐心資本需要有擔當,方向上應圍繞國家重大戰略佈局相關產業,希望他們更多地支持戰略性新興產業和未來產業發展。而當前,機構投資者卻在四大行、中國石化等大盤績優股上抱團。機構投資者的這種行為,不僅是戰略方面的問題,而且是以抱團為名,行投機之實。

此前,興業證券策略團隊就在報吿稱,銀行股連創新高,一方面是今年追求高勝率和確定性的環境下,市場對於以銀行尤其是5大行為代表的紅利低波方向的追逐。

更重要的,則是增量資金的變化。今年主導性的增量資金主要是兩塊,一個是ETF,另一個是保險。這兩塊資金對銀行均有較高比重的配置,也因此成為銀行上升的重要驅動。

數據顯示,今年以來,市場偏弱,中央匯金加大了ETF的增持力度,滬深300ETF規模較年初新增4742億元。

而銀行在滬深300行業權重排名第一,大約有超600億元資金通過滬深300ETF流入銀行板塊。

部分銀行業績較差

近期,多家銀行發佈了上半年業績,今日大跌的部分個股業績表現較差。

廈門銀行上半年營收、淨利潤雙降,營業收入28.92億元,同比下降2.21%;歸母淨利潤為12.14億元,同比下降15.03%。

上海銀行上半年實現營業收入262.47億元,同比下降0.43%;歸母淨利潤129.69億元,同比增長1.04%。

交通銀行上半年實現歸母淨利潤452.87億元,同比下降1.63%;實現淨經營收入1325.50億元,同比下降3.46%;擬分配現金紅利每股0.182元(含税),合共135.16億元。

展望未來,國信證券預計,在全球局勢明朗之前,前期經濟復甦緩慢,市場增量資金主要來自於保險等低風險偏 好機構不會發生實質上的扭轉,因此業績波動較低且高分紅的個股依然是資金配置的重要方向,建議繼續持有國有大行。

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