大行評級|中銀國際:預計第三季度休閒旅遊或弱於市場預測 行業中最看好OTA平台
中銀國際發表研究報吿指,由於不利天氣和消費者信心疲弱等因素影響,今年第二季中國旅遊業可能表現平淡,並料第三季或會延續次季的疲軟狀態,休閒旅遊或弱於市場早前的預測。因此,該行預計行業的次季盈利可能存在不及預期的風險,令下半年指引更趨審慎。不過,該行認為,如果8月公佈盈利後市場出現負面反應,這些公司推出的資本市場舉措或會為其股價提供下行保護。中銀國際重申,最為看好OTA平台,其後為酒店,最後為旅遊零售。中銀國際的行業首選是攜程,預計其出境旅遊和海外平台的業務擴張可以抵銷國內旅遊的疲軟,H股及美股評級均為“買入”,H股目標價為497港元。另外,該行將中國中免2024至26財年的盈利預測下調21至23%,H股目標價由108港元降至68港元。華住2024至26財年各年EBITDA預測則降3%至4%,H股目標價由35.9港元下調至34.7港元,認為基於內地酒店表現持續惡化,華住或會作出更審慎的全年指引。該行維持予中國中免及華住H股“買入”評級。
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