大行評級|建銀國際:上調新奧能源目標價至58港元 料中期核心盈利將按年跌13%
建銀國際報吿指,料新奧能源上半年核心盈利將按年跌13%,主因液化天然氣(LNG)合約結算收益下跌85%。在剔除海外液化天然氣銷售下滑的影響後,估計期內其他業務毛利按年增9%。另料上半年零售天然氣銷量增長按年升4.2%,因低基數效應所致。在居民用户持續承擔成本上升(2023年為50%,2024年首五個月為57%),以及淡季管道天然氣採購成本下降的影響下,集團每立方米毛利可能按年增加1分錢,達到0.53元人民幣/立方米。該行預期,泛能及附加價值業務的毛利在期內會按年升22%至23%,而新增家庭用户連接數量將按年跌17%至85.6萬户。建銀國際在考慮到批發天然氣量利潤及附加價值業務的收入減少後,下調公司今明兩年核心盈利預測各3%,同時亦因併購機會轉微而下降其資本支出預測。該行將其目標價由55港元升至58港元,維持“中性”評級,直到看到進一步的催化劑。
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