大行評級|大摩:預期香港銀行次季業績強勁並繼續回購股份 偏好匯控、渣打
大摩發表報吿,預期香港銀行第二季業績仍然強勁,並將進一步回購股份。該行指出,盈利勢頭放緩下,市場將聚焦於美國減息,但該行相信減息幅度温和,仍可支持港銀穩健的股東權益回報率及資金迴流,偏好匯控、渣打。同時對中銀香港目標價由22.8港元升至23.8港元,恒生銀行目標價由93.3港元升至97.1港元。大摩指,港銀繼續致力資本回報,預計匯控將在第二季業績公佈時宣佈進一步回購20億美元股份,渣打料會宣佈回購10億美元股份,恒生亦可能在第四季額外回購20億港元股份,並可能於2025年及2026年各回購70億港元股份,但現階段該行尚未將此列入預測。
大摩預期,第二季港銀貸款增長將持續受壓,銀行下半年恢復貸款增長的信心似乎正在減弱,因此該行相應調低2024財年貸款增長預期。同時,由於香港銀行同業拆息下跌,該行預期第二季港銀的淨息差將繼續受壓。不過香港銀行同業拆息自6月初開始回升,平均拆息水平在第3季可能持續走高。
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