AI換機熱潮到底有沒有被低估?知名蘋果分析有不同的看法
市場對蘋果在AI上的期待極高。
不過,最新,AI推動iPhone換機潮的邏輯,遭到了知名蘋果分析師郭明錤的質疑。
隔夜,蘋果大跌2%,報224.235美元,總市值3.44萬億美元。

iPhone 16銷量可能並不會大增
當地時間週四,郭明錤發文稱,雖然WWDC後,不時有iPhone 16訂單增加的消息,但從關鍵供應商的表態來看,iPhone 16的訂單可能並未增加。

他引用台積電和大立光在財報電話會上的表態來判斷,的確有特定供應商看到今年下半年iPhone 16訂單增加,但從EMS/組裝的角度看,下半年iPhone 16的訂單並沒有太大變化(約8700萬部),依舊略低於去年下半年iPhone 15約為9100萬部的訂單量。
台積電:我們沒有看到出貨成長突然增加 (We did not see kind of unit growth suddenly increased)。 大立光:今年高階機型訂單跟去年差不多。
此前,有媒體報道稱,AI刺激下,iPhone 16今年下半年的出貨量有望同比增加10%,賣出至少9000萬台iPhone 16。
對於部分供應商訂單增加,他認為,這可能跟個別產業或零組件的特定原因有關。
Apple Intelligence 還只是測試版
更為關鍵的是,郭明錤指出了AI推動換機潮邏輯的最大漏洞:Apple Intelligence目前只是測試版,下半年只會在部分地區上線。
他指出,目前Apple Intelligence下半年僅會提供給美國用户測試的Beta版,且Apple Intelligence Siri僅支援英語。
郭明錤認為,要消費者在今年下半年為測試版本的Apple Intelligence就購買新款iPhone 16,這樣的預期或許過於樂觀。
同時,他還質疑,僅憑Apple Intelligence就能推動換機需求, 這也是一個很大的議題。
此前,格隆匯就曾報道,由於監管因素,蘋果今年不會在歐洲地區推出AI功能。想要在大中華區的上線同樣還需要時間。
很顯然,郭明錤的看法和許多華爾街大行存在着分歧。
前不久,摩根士丹利才將蘋果列為首選股,目標價上調至273美元,並稱市場低估了AI帶來的換機潮,將未來兩年的iPhone銷量從2.3億-2.35億上調至近5億部。
數據顯示,分析師們預計,鑑於GenAI智能手機的熱潮,三星和蘋果將在今年引領全球智能手機市場的復甦。分析師們對蘋果的評級為“買入”,中位目標價為217美元。
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