過剩局面難改,碳酸鋰價格持續探底!8萬元/噸成本線能撐多久?
供給過剩疊加需求持續不足,近期碳酸鋰價格“跌跌不休”。
繼昨日大跌1.59%後,今日(7月18日)碳酸鋰期貨再度走低,主力合約LC2407現報收於8.795萬元/噸,盤中最低跌至8.645萬元/噸,突破年內新低。近3個月累計下跌逾23%。

現貨方面,據上海有色網數據,今日電池級碳酸鋰均價報8.645萬元/噸,較上一日跌900元/噸,工業級碳酸鋰報8.15萬元/噸,與行業供需平衡成本線8萬元/噸已經不遠了。
市場消息稱,目前部分外購鋰雲母企業已經停工,雲母提鋰龍頭志存鋰業也在6月底宣佈兩家全資子公司——江西金輝鋰業有限公司和天卓新材料有限公司停產檢修。
二級市場的鹽湖提鋰、鋰電概念也經歷了大幅回調,自2021年12月以來,板塊均已大跌近50%。

礦企半年業績分化明顯
鋰價磨底直接影響到鋰礦企業的業績。
從多家行業公司近期披露的2024年上半年業績預吿不難看出,鋰價下行不僅大幅削弱了上游礦企的賺錢能力,更有公司因價格不振而預計虧損,也有公司因資源稟賦和成本優勢而意外“報喜”。
據不完全統計,截至7月15日,13家上市鋰企公佈2024年上半年業績預吿,其中5家鋰企虧損,3家預增,5家預降。

其中,天齊鋰業預虧數額最大,預計上半年虧損48.8億元至55.3億元,而公司2023年同期盈利64.52億元。對於業績預虧,公司表示主要系鋰產品銷售價格較上年同期大幅下降,鋰產品毛利大幅下降。
贛鋒鋰業預計上半年虧損7.6億元至12.5億元,而去年同期盈利58.5億元。贛鋒鋰業解釋稱,儘管產品出貨量同比增長,但鋰價持續下行讓公司不得不面對虧損局面。
頭部鋰礦企業中,西藏礦業2024上半年業績實現正增長,公司預計實現歸母淨利潤9000萬元—1.3億元,同比上升255.78%—413.91%。但業績增長主要依賴金屬鉻價格走強。
供需矛盾加劇,上行動力不足
英大期貨指出,供需方面,碳酸鋰市場目前仍處於供需失衡的狀態,目前上游鋰鹽廠挺價情緒較重,下游企業在採購方面依舊較為謹慎,上下游之間的心理價差進一步擴大。需求方面,6月中國需求市場表現較好,但是由於7月車市進入淡季,疊加目前經銷商庫存偏高,7月動力電芯需求可能有限。
外部因素方面,外部環境對中國電池、新能源汽車等產品的制裁持續增加,繼美國對華電動汽車及鋰電池等產品加徵關税後,歐盟委員會在經歷對中國電動汽車進行為期 9 個月的反補貼調查後,決定對來自中國的電動汽車進口徵收臨時反補貼税。
總體來看,碳酸鋰市場依然處於供需失衡的狀態,市場悲觀情緒仍在,上行動力不足。
國貿期貨表示,二季度,碳酸鋰主連價格呈現“震盪-下跌”的走勢。基本面上,碳酸鋰維持供過於求的格局不變,邊際上供給寬鬆加劇,短期內期價或低位震盪。下半年,供給端預計以保持高位為主,需求端預計以剛需採買為主線,階段性或有供需錯配,碳酸鋰價格整體易跌難升。
展望下半年,華泰期貨預計在全球供需沒有顯著變化的情況下,碳酸鋰市場維持震盪探底過程,過程中價格可能會受短期消息刺激影響,但難改整體趨勢。
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