張坤最新觀點!不認同市場當前悲觀預期,國內經濟依然是一片沃土,看好居民消費
又進入了基金二季度持倉披露期。
今日,掌管616.81億元資金、易方達的張坤發佈了旗下產品的二季度報。
在季報中,張坤錶示,自己不認同市場當前的悲觀預期,只要人均GDP不斷增長,悲觀預期最終將被證偽。此時此刻最重要的是耐心,優質企業的長期回報預期是很可觀的。
減倉中石油,加倉新秀麗
截至二季度末,張坤在管的4只產品總規模約616.81億元,較一季度末647.31億元,縮減了4.71%。
二季度,張坤旗下產品的持倉變動變動不大,加倉新秀麗、美團,減倉中石油、瀘州老窖、五糧液、貴州茅台、洋河股份、騰訊。

其中,易方達藍籌精選混合前十大重倉股中,招行退出,新秀麗新進,獲大幅加倉6600萬股,加倉山西汾酒15萬股,減倉中石油5850萬股、騰訊290萬股。

易方達優質企業三年持有期混合的前十大重倉股變動不大,山西汾酒退出前十大重倉股,新建倉新秀麗1080萬股,減倉了中海油680萬股、騰訊37.5萬股、2萬股瀘州老窖,加倉美團159.99萬股。

易方達亞洲精選中,AMD、港交所退出前十大重倉股,富途控股、三星電子新進,加倉新秀麗219萬股、普拉達30萬股,減倉中海油480萬股、騰訊28萬股、阿里巴巴12萬股、台積電8.2萬股。

易方達優質精選混合中,招行、港交所退出前十大重倉股,山西汾酒、普拉達新進,減倉騰訊106.5萬股、阿里巴巴102萬股。

不認同市場的悲觀預期
二季度以來,市場的投資者在央行持續提示風險下仍然積極擁抱長期國債和類似債券的股票,不斷迴避與國內需求相關的行業。
張坤在季報中分析,從這兩方面來看,市場的一致預期已經非常悲觀。
他認為,市場的悲觀預期可能是建立在停滯的擔憂上,對這種悲觀預期很不認同。
張坤依然相信中國人民的勤勞和智慧,認為只要人的主觀能動性繼續發揮,是沒有理由會出現經濟停滯。
他認為,只要了人均GDP不斷增長、老百姓的生活水平越來越好,就會有一批提供優質產品和服務的企業能夠持續增長並創造回報。甚至,即使維持目前的利潤水平,其股息率也已經接近或超過一些傳統意義的紅利股票。
張坤指出,經濟的不斷髮展是企業長期成長的土壤,國內經濟依然是一片沃土。具體投資上,張坤看好居民消費。
考慮居民消費在經濟中的佔比,由於經濟發展帶來老百姓生活水平越來越好進而帶來的投資機會,仍然是股票市場長期最有前景的富礦之一。
他建議,當下市場由於悲觀的預期,把一些優質公司交易在了私有化都能算清楚賬的估值(市盈率、市值/自由現金流)水平。此時此刻最重要的是耐心,優質企業的長期回報預期是很可觀的。
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