大行評級|大摩:下調金蝶國際目標價至10港元 中小企需求疲弱或拖累新預訂表現
摩根士丹利發表研究報吿指,預期金蝶國際今年上半年營收將按年升12%,低於早前15%至20%的全年按年升幅指引,同時預期金蝶雲訂閲服務年經常性收入(ARR)增長率將有5個百分點的落差,料僅增25%,低於指引增30%;主要由於中小企需求疲弱,資訊科技預算缺乏韌性,拖累新預訂表現,公司指引有下行風險。至於大型企業的雲端需求應該穩固,公司的市場份額增長應是可持續。該行預計,金蝶國際的營運開支將温和增長5.5%,上半年正常化淨虧損料2.26億元,按年同期收窄20%。該行亦將金蝶國際2024至2026財年各年營收預測,分別下調2%、3.5%及5%,以反映宏觀經濟影響,以及26%的ARR年均複合成長率假設。該行亦削減對金蝶營運開支的假設,惟幅度低於對收入預測的下調幅度。該行將金蝶國際目標價由14.6港元下調至10港元,維持“增持”評級,同時預計其基礎業務將可跑贏同業。
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