港股收評:恒指失守萬八關口,科技股頹勢繼續,黃金股活躍
7月16日,港股三大指數全天維持跌勢,截止收盤,恒指跌1.6%再度失守萬八關口,國指、恒生科技指數分別下跌1.64%及1.35%,三者連跌2日近乎抹平此前強勢升幅。

盤面上,大型科技股全線下跌,內險股下跌明顯,內銀板塊全天呈單邊下跌行情,手遊股走低;水務股尾盤跌幅擴大,家電股、煤炭股、港口及海運股、體育用品股、重型基建股、內房股與物管股全天表現低迷。AI手機或開啟蘋果新一輪換機週期,蘋果概念股午後升幅加大。金價站上2430美元,黃金股繼續活躍,豬肉概念股、影視娛樂股部分逆勢上升。

具體來看:
大型科技股普跌,快手、騰訊跌超3%,百度、京東跌超2%,阿里、美團、小米等跟跌;網易逆勢上升1.2%。

保險股跌幅居前,中國平安跌超5%,友邦保險、新華保險等國跟跌。個股消息面上,中國平安昨日晚間公吿,擬根據一般性授權發行可轉換為公司H股股份的債券,擬發行的債券本金總額為35億美元,可於條款及條件所載情形下轉換為H股。初始轉換價為每股H股43.71港元(可予調整)。花旗銀行指出,中國平安的H股股價可能會因可轉債帶來的Delta選擇權避險行為而面臨短期壓力。

手遊股走低,望塵科技、博雅互動跌超5%,騰訊、創夢天地跌超3%。數據研究機構DataEye發佈的《2024上半年大陸市場手遊效果廣吿白皮書》顯示,2024上半年大陸市場手遊APP在投遊戲數約1.46萬款,同比2023上半年的1.62萬款下滑9.9%,為近3年最低。

蘋果概念股強勢,舜宇光學科技升超6%,高偉電子升超5%。消息面上,AI技術料將激發“換新潮”,機構看好蘋果銷量增長前景。大摩報吿稱,由於僅有iPhone 15 Pro/Pro Max以及更新的機型才能支持蘋果的AI技術,預計這將推動消費者積極換新,從而帶動出貨量強勁上升,平均售價(ASP)年增長率將達5%。

黃金及貴金屬股延續升勢,港銀控股升超10%,山東黃金、招金礦業升超4%。消息面上,鮑威爾最新預計今年經濟增長將放緩,通脹將繼續取得進展。美聯儲不會等到通脹達到2%目標才降息,因為貨幣政策的影響具有滯後性,假如維持利率太久太高,會過度抑制經濟增長。

半導體股上揚,宏光半導體升超9%,康龍特升超3%,上海復旦、華虹半導體升超2%。國泰君安發佈研報稱,國內多家芯片設計公司發佈業績預增公吿,全球半導體復甦,中國市場高增延續,存儲復甦力度明顯強於邏輯產品。受益於AI和AI端側換機週期驅動,存儲和AI下游率先復甦,手機PC、AIoT,通用服務器的復甦節奏持續,有望於Q3持續向上。考慮到Q3為消費電子旺季,看好蘋果產業鏈下游公司、數字SoC公司、存儲類下游公司、服務器類下游公司的業績。

個股方面,統一企業中國收跌超10%至6.11港元,股價創5月10日以來新低。消息面上,7月14日,浙江省杭州市民吳先生購買統一老壇酸菜牛肉麪食用,從中吃出老鼠頭。統一回應稱,公司已安排專人與消費者進行聯繫確認核實。

農夫山泉盤中股價股價創2020年9月以來最低,收跌近3%報32.55港元。香港消委會7月15日發佈《飲水思源30瓶裝水口味、礦物、安全檢測》稱,來自農夫山泉和百歲山的樣本被檢出溴酸鹽達到每公升3微克,即0.003mg/L。該數字達到了歐盟對用於經臭氧處理的天然礦泉水和泉水的溴酸鹽最大限值。

今日,南下資金淨流入80.6億港元,其中港股通(滬)淨流入46.38億港元,港股通(深)淨流入34.22億港元。

展望後市,東吳證券稱,港股未來的下行風險有底。主要基於:一,宏觀經濟下行風險已階段性釋放;二,港股的估值依然足夠便宜;三,儘管美聯儲降息一再推遲,全球投資者用腳投票,預計降息週期已經開啟。尤其最近通脹數據顯示有降温。該行認為,當前過程中風格可能會有一定切換。近期紅利風格還會相對佔優。隨着美聯儲降息,科技成長風格或會迎來反彈。
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