研報掘金|中信建投:預計下半年A股市場將呈現先抑後揚走勢
中信建投證券下半年A股投資策略展望指出,預計下半年市場將呈現先抑後揚走勢。短期面臨盈利預期下修,但微觀流動性有支撐,今年股權融資供給規模顯著好於去年,股東增持和公司分紅回購將明顯改善。下半年美聯儲開啟降息將顯著改善匯率約束環境,國內政策有望加碼,房地產新一輪收儲政策值得期待,風險偏好將邊際改善,下半年市場環境最終將好於上半年,主要指數有望挑戰新高。中期看,地產負面拖累將不斷減弱,A股盈利也將受益於產能週期見底回升。行業配置:逐步由守轉攻,先守住勝率資產,關注電力,油,電信運營商等。伺機加倉賠率資產,關注三條景氣線索:1)出海精挑細選;2)新質生產力尤其是AI方向;3)供求格局改善方向。
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