研報掘金|中信證券:看好供需格局持續改善對於銅價的提振作用
中信證券研報指出,銅需求結構的兩點傳統認知亟待重塑:一是鋰電、風光儲的持續發展將促進終端需求由傳統領域主導轉為能源轉型領域主導;二是我國實際需求佔比難言絕對主導,歐美以及新興市場潛能不容小視。前期終端階段性降速以及高銅價致使國內需求停滯。當前海外需求已率先修復,未來在海內外共振補庫和國內消費旺季的預期下,疊加地產、線纜領域需求有望由失速轉為企穩,終端復甦有望催化銅價強勢運行。預計2024下半年銅價運行區間為9500美元—12000美元/噸。往更遠看,新能源、新經濟和新興市場的發展有望驅動銅需求從週期性邁向成長性。看好供需格局持續改善對於銅價的提振作用,推薦銅板塊的配置價值。
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