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金價繼續上揚,黃金股票ETF升超4%

今日,國際金價繼續上升,中金黃金、銀泰黃金、山東黃金分別收升8.85%、6.72%和4.85%。ETF方面,國泰基金黃金股票ETF、平安基金黃金產業ETF、華夏基金黃金股ETF和華安基金黃金股票ETF升4%

消息面上,倫敦金現目前升至2360美元上方,錄得3連升。

而金價今日的反彈得益於美國近期的勞動數據以及PCE數據都有所放緩,因此,市場預計美國勞動力市場正在經歷降温,今晚的非農數據繼續表現出勞動力市場增長放緩的趨勢。

6月小非農ADP數據和初請失業金人數顯示,美國勞動力市場有所降温。

美國上週初請失業金人數有所增加,而失業人數在6月底進一步上升至兩年半以來的新高,這與勞動力市場逐漸降温的趨勢一致。美國勞工部數據顯示,在截至6月29日的一週內,各州初請失業金人數增加了4000人,經季節性調整後為23.8萬人,路透預估為23.5萬人。

因此市場認為6月非農數據將走弱,為美聯儲9月降息增添更多的可能性,因此今日提前price in金價上升。

City Index高級分析師Matt Simpson表示:“如果非農就業數據證實了我們在其他地方看到的經濟裂縫,金價有可能升至2400美元。”

A股目前的黃金主題ETF主要有股票型ETF和商品型ETF,前者跟蹤的指數為SSH黃金股票後者跟蹤的指數名稱為SGE黃金9999和上海金。

從最新規模來看,規模超百億的ETF分別是華安基金黃金ETF和博時基金黃金ETF基金,最新規模分別為231.54億元和126.62億元,這兩隻ETF跟蹤的指數名稱都是SGE黃金9999。

但從年內表現來看,華夏基金黃金股ETF和永贏基金黃金股ETF今年表現最佳,截至今日的年度升幅分別為37.98%和28.02%。這兩隻ETF跟蹤的指數名稱為SSH黃金股票。因為跟蹤該指數的ETF產品除了能享受金價上升帶來的升幅,還有股票估值上升帶來的升幅。

中證指數官網顯示,中證滬深港黃金產業股票指數從內地與香港市場中,選取50只市值較大且業務涉及黃金採掘、冶煉、銷售的上市公司證券作為指數樣本,以反映內地與香港市場中黃金產業上市公司證券的整體表

從前十大成分股名單來看,SSH黃金股票指數的第一大權重股是紫金礦業,權重為12.26%,第二大權重股和第三大權重股分別是山東黃金和中金黃金,佔比為11.91%和10.69%。

瑞銀全球貴金屬團隊預計,2024至2026年金價將保持強勁穩定,並將金價預測上調至每盎司2365至2775美元。

施羅德投資管理和瑞銀全球財富管理首席投資官表示,黃金已成為抵禦波動的首選交易。施羅德的集團首席投資官Johanna Kyrklund稱,“相對於美國國債,我更青睞黃金。”金價今年已攀升至紀錄高位,受美聯儲降息預期以及各國央行購買黃金、地緣政治緊張局勢下的避險需求影響。不過,降息時間存在不確定性,這導致美國國債波動,一項美債指標在去年上升後回落。

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