大行評級丨花旗:三中全會前內房股或有短線機會,首選華潤置地和貝殼
花旗表示,在三中全會7月中旬召開前,中資地產股可能出現短線交易窗口,因為6月中國房地產銷售好轉,且7月同比降幅料將繼續收窄。花旗指出,預計三中全會在房地產領域將重點關注農村土地改革(户籍制度)、房產税和中央/地方政府的收入分配(包括土地出讓收入)等,預計大多數政策都能改善房地產行業的健康狀況,並加速行業軟着陸。花旗稱,2023年的新增城市建設用地中只有8%是住宅用地,大部分土地用於基礎設施和公共設施,土地改革並不一定會帶來住宅供應的激增。上半年盈利情況和對開發商的現金流預期也將是7月交易的關鍵因素。該行青睞有現金流和盈利良好的股票,首選華潤置地(1109.HK)和貝殼(2423.HK)。
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