In the first half of 2024, the US stock market showed a strong performance, and the S&P 500 index rose by more than 14.48%, hitting 31 new closing highs, which is the most in the first half of the year since 2021. The Nasdaq 100 is up 16.98 percent. The Nasdaq Technology market cap weighted index is up 33.60 percent. Such data performance is quite eye-catching, and many investors who allocate US stock index funds have received very considerable investment returns in the first half of 2024.

Historically, July has been, on average, the best month of the year for U.S. stocks. Data analysis shows that between 2012 and 2022, the Standard & Poor's 500 index gained an average of 3.3% in July, a significant improvement from the 1.3% average gain since 1950. Breaking it down further, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 1.7% in July, according to Dow Jones Market Data, and has ended the month higher than it opened more than 60% of the time.

Nonetheless, July in the United States will welcome a number of major financial events that will have a huge impact on the trend of the U.S. stock market, and paying attention to these events can help us better predict market trends and make rational investment decisions.

Timeline

• On July 1, the release of the Standard & Poor's June U.S. manufacturing PMI final reading;
• On July 2, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Brazilian Central Bank President Neto spoke at the European Central Bank's Central Banking Forum. Recently, the global central bank's interest rate cut expectations have been adjusted again. The wave of interest rate cuts expected to begin in 2024 did not materialize as major central banks embraced longer-than-expected inflation. Watching Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde's comments on inflation and rate cut prospects will help analyze current rate cut expectations.
• On July 3, because of Independence Day, the US stock market will be closed 3 hours in advance, the intraday trading period is 21:30 to 01:00(Beijing time), the after-hours trading period is 01:00 to 05:00(Beijing time), and the market will be closed all day on July 4;
• On July 4, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. The minutes will provide detailed views of Fed officials on the state of the economy, inflation, the job market and the future path of interest rates. Such information could change market expectations about the future course of monetary policy. If the minutes show that the Fed is likely to raise or lower rates faster or slower, the market quickly adjusts its expectations, with an impact on stock prices. Moreover, the minutes of the meeting may contain unexpected information or content that is not consistent with market expectations, causing investors to re-evaluate risks, causing dramatic changes in stock prices and trading volumes;
• On July 5, the US non-farm employment report for June will be released, which will show the current unemployment situation in the US and affect interest rate cut expectations.
• On July 9, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered his semi-annual monetary policy testimony before the Senate Banking Committee.
• On July 12, a new round of results will be announced, with Morgan Bank (US stock code: JPM), Citi (US stock code: C) and Wells Fargo (US stock code: WFC) three major investment banks to be announced first;
• On July 19, Netflix will report its latest results. Netflix (NFLX) reported a 14.8% year-over-year increase in revenue to $9.37 billion in the first quarter of 2024. First-quarter net income rose 78.7 per cent year on year to $2.332 billion, or $5.28 a share, beating expectations of $4.52. Netflix added 9.33 million paying subscribers in the first quarter of this year, and added 37.1 million subscribers in the past 12 months, a growth rate of 16%, to reach 269.6 million total subscribers, beating market expectations. Starting in the first quarter of 2025, Netflix will stop disclosing the number of paying subscribers. This July results announcement, can Netflix's performance remain strong?