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公募基金一季度隱形重倉股曝光,圖解過去20年公募基金重倉股變遷
格隆匯 05-13 16:42

根據上市公司一季報前十大流通股東與公募基金一季報持倉的對比,公募基金一季報隱形重倉股情況。

公募基金一季度隱形持有電子、醫藥生物市值超過600億元,分別為619.81億元、601.85億元,持股數量均高於480只;對電力設備行業持股市值隨後,為429.1億元;對機械設備、非銀金融、計算機等板塊持股市值在200億元以上。

從隱形重倉股看,公募基金對中國建築、中國神華持股市值超過30億元;華潤微、拓荊科技、萬華化學、中控技術等個股持股市值在25億元以上;格力電器、滬硅產業、中國銀行、晶晨股份、大全能源、中國石化、中國中免、山西汾酒持倉市值在20億以上。

對於公募基金的持倉,國信證券研報指出:

以公募基金為代表的機構投資者,其資產管理規模持續增長,持股市值也在穩步上升。國內資本市場也逐步走向成熟,正歷經由“散户市”向“機構市”的進步,在此背景下,機構投資者對A股市場的影響力愈發顯著,公募調倉不僅是部分領域股價表現的結果,也對相關行業股價表現產生影響。

股票市場通常被視為實體經濟的風向標,公募調倉和盈利趨勢、經濟引擎調整和結構變遷等密切相關。公募基金的重倉持股變化與實體經濟的演進高度相關,股票市場的長期投資機遇往往根植於產業結構的轉型與升級。

2005年至今,主動型權益基金的持倉行業和風格主要經歷如下幾次變動:

(1)2005年-2009年,偏好週期股,重倉金融和地產;

(2)2010年-2012年,偏好消費股,重倉食飲和醫藥;

(3)2013年-2016年,偏好成長股,重倉醫藥和TMT;

(4)2017年-2019年,偏好成長和消費,重倉食飲和醫藥;

(5)2020年至今,偏好成長和消費,重倉茅指數和寧組合。

公募基金歷史調倉板塊具有三大特點:一是具有高穩定性或高成長性;二是市值規模夠大,具有一定的承載力;三是調倉前估值相對較低,具有較高的配置性價比。

在重倉股的選擇上,公募基金偏好大市值、低估值、高盈利個股。

當前A股市場已經歷了連續三年的調整期,這為基金的調倉提供了基礎條件,高分紅和資源品是短期騰挪的方向。從主動型權益基金的持倉集中度來看,可以觀察到調倉活動已經開始。但尚未形成廣泛的共識,未達到足以影響市場價格形成機制的程度。紅利資產和資源品的機遇是行業輪動速度降低、主題投資熄火後,疊加供應約束的資金避風港屬性。歷次行業輪動減速後,中小市值向大市值、高成長向資源品會成為短期調倉的動向。

國信證券認為,考慮到當前流動性有限,本來迎來行情機遇的核心資產可能並非在行業層面,出海型和低估值屬性有望成為未來兩大中長期調倉方向。

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