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張坤最新持倉來了,加倉騰訊控股、中國海洋石油

公募一哥張坤最新動向曝光,截至2024年一季度末,張坤在管規模約為647.32億元,相較於2023年末時的654.74億元,其基金管理規模小幅縮水7.42億元。

張坤在管4只基金分別是易方達藍籌精選、易方達優質精選、易方達優質企業三年持有、易方達亞洲精選。具體操作方面,一季報顯示,張坤持倉總體仍保持穩定,其管理的4只基金一季度末倉位均處於94%以上。隨着股價的變動,前十大重倉股的排序有所調整。

張坤目前規模最大的產品是易方達藍籌精選,截至2024年一季度末,基金資產淨值為411.44億元,較2023年末時的417.38億元小幅度縮水1.42%。

中國海洋石油晉升易方達藍籌精選的“頭號重倉股”,中國海洋石油一季度股價大升39.38%,在股價上升過程中,由於受到單一個股持倉不能超過基金資產淨值10%上限的限制,易方達藍籌精選“被動”減持中海油。

阿斯麥、普拉達、新秀麗新進易方達亞洲精選基金一季度前十大重倉。

張坤在季報中稱:“本基金在一季度股票倉位基本穩定,並對結構進行了調整,調整了消費和醫藥等行業的結構。個股方面,我們仍然持有商業模式出色、行業格局清晰、競爭力強的優質公司。”

從張坤旗下產品的全部持倉來看,一季度減持了五糧液、瀘州老窖、貴州茅台、招商銀行和美團,其中對招商銀行減持幅度較大;加倉騰訊控股、中國海洋石油;山西汾酒替代藥明生物進入前十大持倉。

這兩年,以煤炭、石油、礦業為代表的資源股上升,高股息策略受到市場追捧,基金圈得資源股得天下,績優基金殺入資源板塊。張坤對此提出不同看法,張坤指出:

1.從長期國債和類債的股票資產表現來看,市場的風險偏好已經降低到了很低的水平,具體表現為在定價時給予靜態的股息率水平很高的權重,對成長性特別是企業的長期成長性持懷疑的態度。在簡化模型下,在5%股息率+1%成長性的公司A和3%股息率+8%成長性的公司B之間,現階段市場大多更傾向於選擇公司A,這類公司也吸引了大量類固定收益資金的配置。

2.如果我們覆盤資本市場長期的歷史,股票比債券長期收益率高的一個重要原因就是股票具有持續的成長性,而優質股票的必要條件就是具有長期持續的成長性。因此,我們認為作為股票投資者,應始終賦予尋找長期成長性相當的權重。

3.雖然,在高質量發展時期,公司持續高速增長的基礎概率在降低,但我們始終不應該放棄對中等且持續成長性的尋找,而成長性也可以通過在不同的細分結構中尋找而獲得。然而,成長必須是高質量的,不是粗放經營或者燒錢帶來的,應是在合理邊際投資回報率情況下獲得的。我們會很關注公司對成本費用的控制能力、運營資本的管控能力、自由現金流的產生能力、資本分配的能力以及回報股東的意願。

4.另外,從估值角度,過去三年,由於市場對長期成長性預期的不斷修正,公司A的估值出現了提升,而公司B的估值則出現了下降,我們認為,從各個估值緯度(市盈率、市值/自由現金流)的絕對和相對水平來看,現階段的市場定價使得長期高質量增長的公司B是有吸引力的。

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