大行評級|星展:下調農行評級至“持有” 進一步重估的催化劑有限
星展發表研究報吿指,農業銀行2023財年純利按年增長3.9%至2,690億元,在國有銀行中錄得最高增長水平,其淨息差收窄30個基點,與同業水平看齊。截至2023財年末,其貸款額按年增約14.4%,亦是同業中最高。星展預期,農行2024及25財年的收入增長仍然受壓,因此中國較低的利率環境為淨息差帶來持續壓力及信貸需求尚未完全恢復,料其2023至26財年的盈利複合年增長率約3%。鑑於高基數效應,該行預期農行2024及25財年的貸款增長將會放緩。該行認為,農行股價上升後已反映大部分利好因素,進一步重估的催化劑有限,而積極的資產負債表擴張亦可能為其未來帶來潛在風險。該行將農行評級由“買入”降至“持有”,H股目標價由3.4港元上調至3.7港元。
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