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中銀香港(02388.HK):日央行貨幣政策轉向對日股影響有限 料日圓有序升值
日本央行自2007年以來首次加息,把基準利率水平上調至0至0.1%之間,並同時取消孳息曲線控制。中銀香港個人數字金融產品部財富策略及分析處主管張詩琪認為,日央行貨幣政策的轉向,代表有信心日本能走出通縮之路。 議息結果公佈後,日圓不升反跌,美元兌日圓曾升穿150水平。張詩琪認為,這是由於早前日本央行行長植田和男表示正關注薪資與通脹的良性循環,以衡量物價穩定地實現目標,加上日本上週「春鬥」結果顯示薪資平均上升5.28%,創33年以來最大升幅,令市場早已對日央行加息有一定預期。日圓短期的走勢還需要觀察美聯儲星期四議息結果釋出的語調及更新的利率點陣圖。若美聯儲傳達延後減息或收窄減幅的信號,美元兌日圓短期或有機會上試去年11月高位152水平。 然而,中長線而言,張詩琪認為息差收窄仍是支持日圓大方向的基調,預期日圓將有序升值。不過,由於日央行的貨幣政策才剛開始改變,加上當地經濟習慣了多年的負利率環境,相信日央行仍需要一段時間評估脫離負利率對經濟的影響。因此,預期政策不會一下子改變得太快令日圓大幅攀升。 她指,基於現時日本實質有效匯率仍處於有紀錄以來的較低水平,預期在日圓有序升值情況下,是次貨幣政策的轉向將對日股影響有限。相反,隨著日本薪資上升,有望帶動當地消費動力,從而支持當地經濟。因此,預期日本企業盈利增長以及企業管治改革的基本因素將支持日股中長線的表現。
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