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惠譽博華:中國煤炭業高峰落幕 面臨新挑戰
惠譽博華發報告指,隨著保供政策進入尾聲,以及安全生產監管加強,2024年中國煤炭行業進一步提升產量的空間有限。同時煤炭進口量增加將對短期內原煤供應產生關鍵影響,或可能出現供大於求的情況。 由於動力煤和煉焦煤的需求增長趨緩,且長協合約執行受嚴格監管,動力煤價格預計將有進一步下行的空間,煉焦煤價格則預計與2023年相近或微跌,但下跌空間或較動力煤少。 惠譽博華認為,中國煤炭採掘行業前景已由「高景氣」步入「中景氣」,由於煤炭開採企業的盈利水平相對可控,煤炭價格的波動尚不足以對行業的信用構成實質性挑戰,仍然給予行業「中景氣穩定」的展望。
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