瑞銀汪濤料內地年內或僅下調政策利率10至20個基點
瑞銀亞洲經濟研究主管及首席中國經濟學家汪濤表示,政府工作報告將2024年經濟增長目標設定在5%左右,與該行預測一致。為實現這一目標,政府計劃發行1萬億元人民幣(下同)超長期特別國債,用於國家重大戰略專案建設,增廣財政赤字率擴張幅度將超過GDP的1%。政府進一步推動化解地方融資平台債務風險,但長期化債方案仍需時日。
此外,貨幣信貸政策將維持支持基調,但該行認為不會出台大規模貨幣寬鬆政策,年內或僅下調政策利率10至20個基點,信貸增速大致持穩。考慮到上述政策組合、且房地產市場下行的負面影響持續,該行認為5%左右的經濟增長目標較為進取,並維持對2024年GDP增長4.6%的基準預測。
汪濤指,報告要求進一步因城施策優化房地產調控,對不同所有制房地產企業合理融資需求要一視同仁給予支持,推進房地產債務重組,加大對保障房和城中村改造的支持力度。該行預計央行或將在年內再投放3,000億至5,000億元PSL,房貸利率及首付比例或將進一步下調,但認為政策支持仍需加碼以穩定房地產市場,包括加大對房地產開發商的信貸支持、進一步推動債務重組,加大對保交樓的資金支援,支援地方政府直接購買更多市場住房庫存等。不過,這些政策可能只有在房地產市場進一步下行和更多風險事件暴露之後才會出台。
另外,儘管今年的CPI目標再次設定在3%左右,但該行預計CPI和PPI通脹僅將溫和回升,若房地產市場進一步下行將加劇通縮風險。
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