《大行報告》美銀證券降蔚來-SW(09866.HK)目標價至50元 上季毛利率遜
美銀證券發表研報指,蔚來-SW(09866.HK)2023年第四季毛利率按年提升3.6個百分點至7.5%,按季比較則下降0.5個百分點,遜於預期,主要受到充電解決方案撥備的影響。期內研發及營銷成本增加,令營運支出高於預期,導致期內經營虧損及淨虧損錄66億及56億元人民幣,亦分別差過該行預測。
蔚來子品牌ALPS將於今年第二季推出,目標今年第四季進行大規模交付;另外蔚來現有車型的2024年升級版將在本月推出。雖然在新舊產品過渡期間,毛利率可能會受到負面影響,但管理層維持在車型升級和過渡後,今年全年毛利率介乎15%至18%的目標。
考慮首季蔚來交付指引介乎3.1萬至3.3萬輛車,相應地美銀將2024至2025財年銷量預測下調4%及5%,並將毛利率預測分別下調2.7個百分點及0.3個百分點,年度淨虧損預測上調21%及9%,重申「中性」評級,相信今年的銷量增長將會被利潤率擴張放緩所抵銷,H股目標價從58元降至50元,蔚來美股(NIO.US)目標價則由7.5美元降至6.5美元。
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