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《大行報告》高盛:壓力測試顯示新世界(00017.HK)、嘉里建設(00683.HK)、置地、恆隆地產(00101.HK)及希慎(00014.HK)派息風險較大
高盛發表研究報告指,在中國經濟放緩的背景下,投資者對本地企業長期增長前景及投資回報仍抱有懷疑,因此選股時會更關注資產負債表具實力的企業,而非大量擴張性資本支出的股份,同時亦會看重派息。 綜合樓價、租賃市場前景、銷售及息口走勢等預測,並計及估值潛在進一步下調後,高盛的壓力測試結果顯示,新世界(00017.HK)、嘉里建設(00683.HK)、置地、恆隆地產(00101.HK)及希慎(00014.HK)等,由於在盈利、自由現金流及資產負債表上面對一定壓力,因此預期未來股息派發風險亦更大。 該行指,在更極端的情況下,恆地(00012.HK)及領展(00823.HK)亦有可能面臨派息風險,但長和系包括長和(00001.HK)、長江基建(01038.HK)、長實(01113.HK),以及九倉置業(01997.HK)與信和置業(00083.HK)則擁有較強勁的財務實力。 高盛指,中央早前宣布將青島及西安納入港澳個人遊城市名單當中,以及政府全面撤銷樓市辣招後,均利好本地企業發展,關注政府會否再提供更多政策支持。至於就投資回報來看,該行則看好太古集團業務具有更高透明度及一致性,亦看好長實擁有健康的現金流及流動性去進行回購。 高盛對本地發展商與收租股的最新目標價及投資評級詳見另表。
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