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《大行報告》摩通升交行(03328.HK)目標價至5.4元 評級「中性」
阿思達克 03-06 09:40
摩根大通發報告,指基於交通銀行(03328.HK)淨息差及於2024年2月五年期貸款市場報價利率(LPR)的下調,輕微調整對其費用收入和撥備的預測。將交通銀行2023至2025年的盈利預測分別下調0.4%、0.3%和0.8%。同時,摩通預計交行的資金成本由12.9%降低到12.4%。認為在當前的市場條件下,交通銀行的估值是合理。因此上調目標價由5.2元上調4%至5.4元,並維持「中性」評級。 該行又指,交通銀行在國有銀行中對零售消費貸款的佔比較高,因而較其他國有銀行更能從零售業務的復甦中受益。然而,交通銀行的不良貸款覆蓋率在國有銀行中最低,釋放撥備支持盈利和股息增長的空間有限。 此外,交通銀行在去年的金融穩定委員會(FSB)評估中得分128分,僅低於成為全球系統重要銀行(G-SIB)所需最低分數2分。因此,摩通認為交通銀行今年被納入G-SIB名單的可能性相對較高,這意味著其最低普通股權一級資本比率(CET 1 ratio)要從8.25%提高到8.5%;而其CET 1 ratio在中國國有銀行中是第二低,或會面臨資本壓力。
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