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惠譽:中央調整能繁母豬保有量目標 可舒緩供應過剩情況
惠譽評級認為,中國政府近期對全國能繁母豬保有量目標的調整將促使生豬養殖企業加快產能去化,從而可逐步緩解該行業供應過剩的局面。供應減少應可引導豬價回歸正常,並支持低成本豬企扭虧為盈,但鑒於目前尚未出台嚴格的執行政策,加之能繁母豬生產效率不斷提高,惠譽預計此舉對該局面的緩解較慢。 惠譽認為,政府此舉釋放出引導該行業加速產能去化並調整產量不合理的強烈信號。鑑於生豬養殖市場高度分散且未對豬企施加強制產能限制,上述舉措對供應產生直接影響仍需時。截至今年1月,中國能繁母豬保有量自2020年10月以來首次降至 4,100萬頭以下。4,067萬頭的存欄量處於「綠色區域」區間,但高於下調後的目標。 另外,自2018年非洲豬瘟爆發以來,該行業的能繁母豬生產效率持續提升。每頭母豬出欄仔豬頭數持續提高抵消了產能去化成果。惠譽認為,至少到今年第二季,該行業將繼續面臨供應過剩的困局。(ca/u) ~
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