《大行報告》瑞銀:即使全面撤辣 樓市上半年仍具挑戰
瑞銀發表報告指,香港特區政府將於本月28日公布最新一份財政預算案,相信住宅及零售市場將會是預算案的主要重點。該行認為,如果政府全面撤辣,可能對發展商股價及實體市場產生一次性利好因素。然而,正面情緒或不能持續,因為市場上仍有大量供應,料需要3年以上消化庫存;鑑於信貸環境收緊,高槓桿發展商可能會降低價格以更快地將現金回籠,以致反彈上升空間有限;租金收益率和抵押貸款成本之間的負息差將持續抑制投資需求。因此,即使全面撤辣,該行仍料今年樓價跌5至10%,相信上半年仍充滿挑戰,但如果住宅租金進一步回升且抵押貸款利率下降,下半年市場情緒或會改善。
該行提到,財赤和土地市場疲弱將是政府取消全面撤辣的主要原因。該行認為,取消買家印花稅(BSD)或會吸引部分內地買樓人士的興趣,但境內資本外流持續緊張可能仍是一個問題。相比之下,該行指,考慮到租金收益率和抵押貸款成本之間的負息差,認為額外印花稅(SSD)和雙倍印花稅(DSD)的影響較細。參考早前政府減辣後數據,預期政策或僅能刺激市場交易4至16周。
零售方面,瑞銀預計政府不會發放消費券,並料將宣布可吸引內地遊客入境的支援措施。除了擴大內地個人遊計劃(IVS)外,相信政府或會恢復對深圳居民的「多次入境」簽證,甚至將計劃推廣到大灣區的其他8個內地城市。不過,該行預期內地旅客赴港法定免稅品限額不會快速提高,料中央政府需要批准並詳細研究執行情況。
該行看好信置(00083.HK),而恆地(00012.HK)公布財務業績後表現優於其他公司。該行相信九龍倉置業(01997.HK)及希慎(00014.HK)這些經營零售租賃的地產商將最受惠於內地旅遊政策放寬。
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