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《大行報告》瑞銀削信義光能(00968.HK)目標價至6.6元 下調盈測
瑞銀發表報告指,信義光能(00968.HK)今年以來跑輸福萊特玻璃(06865.HK)達11%,主要憂慮其多晶矽業務或面臨虧損,以及光伏發電場應收賬問題。該行預測信義光能的光伏玻璃毛利率在今明兩年穩定在20%至21%,略低於福萊特玻璃的22%,因後者能自行滿足對硅石砂的需求。 該行認為市場對多晶矽業務虧損的憂慮已反映在信義光能股價上,信義光能股價對比同業大幅度折讓亦不合理,且其2023年至2025年預測每股盈利年複合增長率為12%,與福萊特玻璃的約13%相若。該行亦指,縱使行業產能過剩問題或持續,但光伏玻璃產能年複合增長料由2021至2023年的44%,降至2023至2025年的17%,亦預期顯著數量的新產能將在供給側控制下押後或取消,產能過剩問題料在今年至2026年持續,但在2027至2028年顯著改善。 該行基於對毛利率假設下調,削減對信義光能2023年至2025年每股盈利預測13%至24%,以現金流折現率計,目標價由16.5元大削至6.6元,維持「買入」評級,認為毛利率下行風險有限,且風險回報變得更具吸引力。
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