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《大行報告》大摩:人行五年期LPR息率創史上最大單次降幅兼遠超預期 料可穩定股市及支持房屋銷售
摩根士丹利發表報告指,人民銀行將五年期貸款市場報價利率(LPR)下調25點子,減幅是有史以來最大,亦遠超市場預期(下調10點子),一年期LPR保持不變,則略為出乎預期(下調5點子)。今次調整是支持穩定股市的其中部分措施,同時亦旨在支持樓市銷售。該行仍然預期今年餘下時間,公開市場操作(OMO)或中期借貸便利(MLF)利率將下調共20點子,以支持淨息差及LPR進一步溫和調整。 報告指,借鑒2012至2016年的經驗,援救股市的措施,需要在經濟措施支持下才得以成功,相信當局需要推出更多貨幣放寬政策,2024/25年財政刺激規模需要達1萬億美元,並聚焦於推動消費。
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