《大行報告》摩通料匯控(00005.HK)及渣打(02888.HK)上季收入增長穩定 聚焦前瞻性指引
摩根大通發表報告指,匯豐控股(00005.HK)出售法國和加拿大業務支持今年強勁的股東回報,包括至今年底105億美元的回購,以及在基本情境下第二季派發每股21美仙特別息,將為股價提供下行支持。但市場將關注其今明兩年的盈利指引,這為推動股價上升的關鍵因素。
摩通料匯控去年末季收入增長穩定,季度基本收入按年升7%至159.28億美元,並較市場預期高出1%。摩通預計,匯控集團和匯豐香港的淨利息收入和淨息差按季將略有增長。該行預測匯控去年第四季的減值成本將增加約60個基點,其中包括內地房地產減值撥備。另外,該行預計,匯控將於業績公布時宣布25億美元的回購計劃。
摩通對渣打集團(02888.HK)第四季收入和稅前利潤預測低於市場預期,10億美元的回購可能是業績主要亮點。摩通預計渣打上季收入增長穩定,去年第四季淨利息收入按季增長約2%,2023財年淨息差為166個基點,與管理層提出的接近約170個基點指引基本一致。另外,該行預計,渣打將於業績公布時宣布回購10億美元股份。
摩通料市場關注渣打今年收入及成本展望,摩通料渣打今年收入增5%,市場預期增7%,均低於管理層現時介乎8%至10%的指引水平。摩通並料渣打將會下調其收入指引水平,並被經營開支指引有望下調所部分抵銷,以維持對經營槓桿的承諾。展望2025及2026年,摩通料渣打收入按年升0%及2%,市場預期各升3%及3%。
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