郭思治:大市稍見反覆 但問題暫不大
香港股票分析師協會副主席郭思治稱,大市經過連升三天後,昨(19日)稍見回吐,恆指昨早市先輕微低開5點至16,334點,由於買盤卻步,加上零碎沽壓又再滲著湧現,故整個大市卒再反覆回落至16,137點方漸見喘定,從技術上看,大市雖略見反覆,惟由於恆指暫仍穩守於16,000點之上,故整個欲試頂之勢頭仍未改變,而所指的頂,暫該為本月7日之高位16,408點,前文已述,由於一個月之高低位是不該同時出現於三個交易日之內,故只要先低後高之形態不變,大市確有機會先上破16,408點,然後再往上尋月內之新高,但首要之條件是恆指必需繼續穩企於50天線(約在16,141點左近)之上。
談到移動線,該首先留意恆指能否續穩守於50天線(約在16,141點左近),10天線(約在15,921點左近)及20天線(約在15,786點左近)等三組平均移動線之上,因大市如欲作進一步之反彈,恆指必需續穩守於上述三組平均移動線之上,至於後市之上望目標,首個該為本月7日之高位16,408點,另一個上望目標則為100天線(約在16,813點左近),但需指出,即使大市能作進一步之反彈,惟亦只屬熊市三期之技術性後抽而已,故任何投機性之短炒部署,均不宜過急及過勇,同時亦需做妥風險管理。
股份中,仍以中移動(00941.HK),中海油(00883.HK)及匯控(00005.HK)等較可取,但只宜中線分注吸納。
(筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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