《大行報告》匯豐研究降玖龍紙業(02689.HK)及理文造紙(02314.HK)目標價 毛利率仍脆弱
匯豐環球研究發表研報指,由於原材料成本下降,有助抵銷產品平均售價下跌的影響,令紙品股的利潤率及盈利水平自去年第四季的谷底有所回升。但該行仍預期,隨著更多新產能投產,產能過剩的情況將在今年內持續,料阻礙利潤率進一步提升。
玖龍紙業(02689.HK)日前發盈喜,預期因銷量增加和利潤率提高,截至去年12月底止中期將扭虧為盈,錄盈利介乎約2億至4億元人民幣。該行預期理文造紙(02314.HK)表現相若,預計其2023年下半年的盈利將較去年同期增長約145%。
惟匯豐研究提醒,預計2024年將有500萬噸新產能投產,佔市場總量約5%,要到2025年供過於求的局面才會逐步改善,估計今年包裝紙需求將溫和增長約4%。該行目前預期今年上半年利潤率將仍低於2019至2021年行業產能過剩前的平均水平,換言之造紙行業尚未走出下行周期,毛利率前景仍然脆弱,維持對玖紙及理文的「持有」評級,並因產能過剩問題,分別下調目標價至3.8元及2.3元。
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