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《大行報告》中金:石油可能仍是今年基本面較好的大宗資產 內地動力煤補庫需求或對價格形成支撐
中金發表報告指出,石油市場中,地緣不確定性持續、OPEC+繼續減產、需求表現邊際改善,共同驅動偏弱預期向仍較好的基本面進行修正。EIA數據顯示2月前兩周美國原油庫存轉為累積,該行認為主因或為美國煉廠開工率在寒潮擾動後仍維持低位、恢復進度落後於原油生產,而非完全反映油品需求走弱;可以看到,煉廠開工率下降導致2月以來美國成品油庫存超過季節性去化。 該行提及,在OPEC+於首季維持額外減產計劃的基準情形下,該行測算今年首季全球石油市場或仍將面臨每日20萬桶左右的供需缺口,過剩的進一步出清或待OPEC+供應約束在貿易市場中得以落實,石油可能仍是今年基本面較好的大宗資產。 此外,該行指春節期間國內煤炭市場交投清淡,秦港庫存快速下滑至近年低位,補庫需求或對價格形成一定支撐。海外動力煤低價也驅動部分補庫需求,海外煤價有所止跌反彈。
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