《大行報告》中金:市場預期美降息推遲至6月 美國科技龍頭盈利可受益AI推動
中金發表報告指,美聯儲降息預期放緩是美國相關資產表現的主線,春節假期美國超出預期的CPI和PPI數據,導致降息時點延後,美債利率抬升,目前芝商所利率期貨隱含降息預期已經推遲到6月,全年降息四次。黃金受此影響一度跌破每盎司2,000美元,美元指數逼近105,美股亦因此回調,尤其是成長股,但幅度有限,體現出不同資產之間對降息預期的分歧。
該行認為,此次通脹超預期將進一步打壓降息預期和節奏,不過也有年初權重調整的因素,雖然回落比預期慢,但並不影響通脹整體回落的方向,估計整體和核心CPI依然有望在年中回落至3%以下。
報告指,目前美股79%公司已披露第四季度業績,超預期比例76%。當前市場預期標普500指數第四季度每股盈利增速3.1%,當中,信息技術、通訊服務、可選消費等成長板塊分別貢獻4.3、3.4和2.1個百分點;醫療保健、能源以及金融板塊分別拖累2.58、2.56及2.5個百分點。
受惠於AI推動以及降本舉措,科技龍頭盈利仍強勁。除英偉達(NVDA.US)將於2月21日公布業績外,主要科技龍頭股均已披露第四季度業績,通訊服務盈利增速升至45%,細分板塊中,互動媒體與服務增速自第三季度的67%步升至85%,主要受惠於權重股Meta(META.US)降低成本持續見效,及AI技術對核心業務廣告的大力支撐。
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