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大新料人行最快下月考慮減息0.1個百分點
大新金融集團首席經濟及策略師溫嘉煒表示,內地1月消費物價降速加快,生產物價連續十六個月通縮,反映經濟動力仍然疲弱。內地1月消費物價指數按年跌幅擴大0.5個百分點至0.8%,連續四個月倒退,按月計算則回升0.3%。1月食品價格降幅較去年12月擴大2.2個百分點至5.9%,其中新鮮蔬菜價格由升轉跌,豬肉價格連跌九個月,兩者是主要推低消費物價的因素。1月非食品價格的按年升幅亦較12月收窄0.1個百分點至0.4%,汽油價格連續兩個月降幅有所收窄。 他指,1月份消費物價跌幅擴大,主要由於去年同期春節假期前,食品價格偏高所致,而非食品價格升幅則保持較為平穩。隨著食品價格基數偏高的影響逐步消散,豬肉價格近期亦有所回升,食品價格在第二季或之前可望回復正增長,協助整體通脹在今年中左右重上約1%水平。而通脹持續低迷,讓人民銀行有更多空間考慮放寬政策,不排除繼日前降準0.5個百分點後,最快下月考慮減息0.1個百分點。 他提到,1月生產物價指數按年降幅收窄0.2個百分點至2.5%,連續十六個月通縮,不過降速則連續兩個月放緩。煤炭開採和洗選價格按年跌幅維持在16%左右,連續九個月錄得雙位數跌幅。展望未來,煤炭供應過剩,加上內地製造業活動及新訂單持續收縮,可能繼續拖累整體生產物品價格,短期內或維持2%至3%按年跌幅。
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